A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
